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Cognitive Biases: Base Rate Fallacy and Conjunction Fallacy

Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that can lead to errors in judgment. Two common biases are the base rate fallacy and the conjunction fallacy.

Base Rate Fallacy

The base rate fallacy occurs when people overestimate the likelihood of an event based on specific information, while ignoring the overall probability of the event. This can lead to faulty decision-making and inaccurate judgments.

Example: Imagine you’re told that a rare disease affects 1 in 1,000 people. You’re also told that a new diagnostic test is 99% accurate. If you test positive for the disease, what is the probability that you actually have it?

Many people would intuitively believe that the probability is very high (around 99%), but this is a fallacy. The actual probability is much lower, due to the low base rate of the disease.

How to avoid the base rate fallacy:

  • Consider the overall probability: Think about the likelihood of an event occurring in general, rather than focusing solely on specific information.
  • Seek objective data: Gather information from multiple sources to get a more accurate picture of the situation.
  • Be skeptical of anecdotes: Avoid drawing conclusions based on personal stories or anecdotes.

Conjunction Fallacy

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people believe that the conjunction of two events is more likely than one of the events alone. This can lead to overestimating the probability of complex events.  

Logical Fallacies: Non Sequitur and Masked-Man

Logical fallacies are common errors in reasoning that can undermine the strength of an argument. Two such fallacies, “non sequitur” and “masked-man,” are often used to manipulate or persuade others.

Non Sequitur

A non sequitur is a Latin phrase that means “it does not follow.” This fallacy occurs when a conclusion does not logically follow from the premises. In other words, the argument is irrelevant or unconnected.

Example:

  • “I like ice cream. Therefore, I should be a politician.”

This argument is a non sequitur because there is no logical connection between liking ice cream and being a politician.

Masked-Man

The masked-man fallacy, also known as the “substitution of identicals,” occurs when someone assumes that two things are identical simply because they have the same properties.

Example:

  • “I know that John is wearing a mask. I also know that the masked man robbed the bank. Therefore, John robbed the bank.”

This argument is a masked-man fallacy because it assumes that just because two individuals have the same property (wearing a mask), they must be the same person.

Both non sequitur and masked-man fallacies can be difficult to spot, as they often appear to be valid arguments at first glance. However, by carefully examining the premises and conclusion, you can identify these fallacies and avoid being misled by faulty reasoning.

Happy Birthday!

Every year on your birthday, you get a chance to start new.

-Sammy Hagar

It’s been a year since I started this blog… WOOT!

Let’s review the reasons for creating this blog:

  • The United States is now an “aggressive irrational idiocracy”
  • Logic and reasoning have been thrown out for feelings
  • People lack critical thinking skills
  • Logical fallacies and cognitive biases abound
  • Individual research is non existent

Ah, hyperbole and overgeneralization, but these points are arguably still valid.

Over the past year I have:

  • Covered 11 cognitive biases, how to recognize them and avoid them
  • Covered 13 logical falllacies, how to recognize them and avoid them
  • Started a series on a christian libertarian based view of the political spectrum

Only more and better to come!

-Dr. Rob

There’s a Method to the Madness

“I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.

Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”

Michael Crichton

What is the scientific method?

The scientific method is a process for experimentation that is used to explore observations and answer questions. It is a systematic way to gather evidence and draw conclusions about the natural world. The scientific method is based on the idea that all natural phenomena are caused by physical or chemical processes, and that these processes can be understood through observation and experimentation.

The scientific method typically involves the following steps:

  • Ask a question. This is the first step in any scientific investigation. It is important to ask a clear and concise question that can be answered through experimentation.
  • Do your research. Once you have asked a question, it is important to research what is already known about the topic. This will help you to develop a hypothesis and to design an experiment.
  • Form a hypothesis. A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. It is important to make a hypothesis that is specific and testable.
  • Design an experiment. An experiment is a test of a hypothesis. It is important to design an experiment that is fair and controlled.
  • Collect data. Data is the information that is collected during an experiment. It is important to collect data carefully and accurately.
  • Analyze the data. Once the data has been collected, it needs to be analyzed to determine whether or not it supports the hypothesis.
  • Draw a conclusion. Based on the analysis of the data, the scientist can draw a conclusion about whether or not the hypothesis is supported. If the hypothesis is supported, the scientist can accept it as a tentative explanation for the phenomenon. If the hypothesis is not supported, the scientist can reject it and develop a new hypothesis.

It’s a bird, it’s a plane, it’s … a tool

The scientific method is a powerful tool for learning about the natural world. It is used by scientists in all fields, including biology, chemistry, physics, and geology. The scientific method has helped us to understand many of the fundamental processes of the universe, and it continues to be used to make new discoveries every day.

Here are some examples of the scientific method in action:

  • A scientist wants to know if a new drug is effective in treating a certain disease. They design an experiment in which one group of patients is given the new drug and another group is given a placebo. The scientist then compares the results of the two groups to see if the new drug is effective.
  • A biologist wants to know how different plants respond to different amounts of water. They design an experiment in which they grow plants in different conditions and then measure the growth of the plants. The biologist then analyzes the data to see how the amount of water affects the growth of the plants.
  • A chemist wants to know how a certain chemical reacts with another chemical. They design an experiment in which they mix the two chemicals together and then observe the reaction. The chemist then analyzes the results of the experiment to see how the two chemicals react.

The scientific method is an essential part of the scientific process. It is a systematic way to gather evidence and draw conclusions about the natural world. The scientific method has helped us to understand many of the fundamental processes of the universe, and it continues to be used to make new discoveries every day.

Sources

The Method

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